Teaching about uncertainity when it comes to climate change

Although scientists have gained significant insight into how the Earth's climate system works, the nature of scientific inquiry tells us that there will never be 100% confidence in future climate projections for a variety of reasons.  As you and your students assess the value of climate models at predicting future climate and related climate change impacts, it is helpful to let students know the factors contributing to uncertainty.  These uncertainties can be broken down into two main categories: climate forcings, such as solar irradiance, greenhouses gas emissions and aerosols, which are primary drivers in shifting the Earth's climate, and climate feedbacks, such as clouds, which are secondary drivers, changing in response to a forcing. 

For a more detailed summary about key forcings and feedbacks that complicate climate models and future climate projections, read the NASA article Unresolved questions about Earth's climate.

Alignment to NC Essential Standards  (grades 9-12)
EEn.1.1.3
EEn.1.1.4
EEn.2.3.1
EEn.2.6

Climate Modeling Tutorial from The Koshland Science Museum

The online resources to supplement the Earth Lab:Degrees of Change exhibit at the Koshland Science Museum includes a tutorial on Climate Modeling. This interactive tutorial can help students explore answers to the following questions:
How do climate models work?
How are they tested?
What causes climate change?
How will our decisions affect climate?


Alignment to NC Essential Standards  (grades 9-12)
EEn.2.6


Be sure to check out the other resources that accompany this exhibit:

   Changes
   Trends
   Processes
   Causes
   Impacts
   Responses

Climate Modeling 101 Website from NAS

The National Academy of Sciences has created a website titled Climate Modeling 101 containing six chapters that include interactive graphics and/or short videos:

Understanding climate 
Understanding computer models
Constructing a climate model
Validating climate models
Users of climate modeling
Developers of climate models

If you haven't see it already, do check out this 1 minute video designed to demonstrate the difference between weather and climate by using the analogy of a man walking his dog. The dog takes a varied path along the way (representing weather), while the man is establishing the direction in which they are walking (representing climate).


I think you'll find this to be a user-friendly primer on climate models. According to the website, the information presented "is based on expert, consensus reports from the National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. The most recent is A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling." 

Alignment to NC Essential Standards  (grades 9-12)
EEn.2.5.4
EEn.2.6